I need JFK-LAX friday july 13 evening returning sunday July 15 afternoon. Very little flexibility. Right now its pricing at $727. The minimum for UA is over $400. I have some CR1, so I would like to use them, but $727 is too much.

I'm wondering if I should just book a 45K AA business award. I can get good flights. What is the likelihood of my flights on UA getting to under $500?