My recent experiences with upgrades. All were for myself and a friend

FRA-SIN - Waitlisted, cleared within 12 hours
SIN-PER - Waitlisted, cleared within 24 hours
PER-MEL - day of departure ok
MEL-BNE - day of departure ok
BNE-CNS - *sob*
CNS-BNE - Day of departure ok
BNE-CBR - *sob*
CBR-MEL - Day of departure ok
MEl-CBR - Day of departure ok
CBR-MEL - didnt bother
MEL-LAX - Confirmed at time of request

Dave