Originally Posted by
avidflyer
While I am at 98% (missed only one of 37 and that was a UA flight that I was put on because of a missed connection) I think we are starting to become victims of NW's success. I am no AL expert but I see much fuller flights and beleive that many folks are making the jump to NW for the Domestic UG's. As I said, I am pretty much perfect for the year but some of them have been at the gate or inside 2-3 days. This tells me they are holding more seats longer in anticipation of selling them. I have a couple friends who are also very high milers and they have simmilar records to mine. NW COULD be actively trying to get the UG's to high rev/milage flyers knowing that things are tightening up. We will have to see how it shakes out but the first half of the year is always tougher than the last. The "double Elite" months of Jan and Feb, then you have school vacations/spring break. The summer will be telling and next year will be the key. If NW keeps load factors up and holds back from expansion (adding flights if in-fact they are growing thier customer base) then next year will be bad for us. If they properly manage the growth and add flights then we will be ok. We shall see but frankly I would be ok down to about 80% then I would re-assess NWA for my needs. Lets face it, we give up a little to get the domestic upgrades and that balance is the key to most of us staying loyal to NW.
Excellent analysis and well stated, for the elites, its the ability to sit in FC. NW's Y domestically is not a lot of fun as we all know. For NW I hope the good times keep rolling, but I also hope that for our sakes we don't run into CO type upgrade scenarios.