Bruceb,
Re your query about my experience with getting upgrades..I can only say lately it's been a bit odd! Every time I have tried lately using the 'official' phone service, I have been told flatly that no upgrades were available..but when I get to the airport and ask nicely at checkin or the QC lounge, it's 'no worries mate!' (despite the fact that this is contrary to the published policy). Maybe I am getting preferential treatment for being Silver? Anyway, I hope international upgrades work a bit more predictably.
On the general issues, I have been doing some detailed sums on what will happen to me, and I must agree that I personally will be considerably better off..the gains on economy swamp the losses on BC. However, I still think it's a bit bizarre that it will take *fewer* economy flights to earn a BC reward flight, but *more* BC flights to do the same!
Finally, can you tell me what will happen with the 3000/5500km upgrade certs that elites get now..if unused by 15/9, how many 'upgrade credits' will they translate to?