Because of a family illness, I will probably have to cancel my family spring trip to Italy. I'd booked four MP business awards SFO-FRA(UA)-FLR(LH) and returning FCO-IAD-SFO(all UA). I'd like to rebook the trip for next spring (2008), but I can only make itinerary changes using the same routings up through the end of November, at which time I'd have to pay to have the miles redeposited.

What I'd like to do is book an itinerary near the end of November that was ripe for a significant schedule change that would allow me to get my miles back without paying $400 ($100 for each passenger) should such a schedule change occur. Are there particular historical flights on UA from SFO-FRA that get removed from the schedule or altered significantly as to jeopardize subsequent connections? I'd plan to book a legal, yet tight connection for FRA-FLR on LH.

I'd appreciate any insight. Thanks.