Every weekend redeye I've taken this year has been packed. That's included SFO-EWR, SFO-CLE, and SFO-IAH flights on Friday and Saturday nights.

Packed doesn't necessarily mean you won't get upgraded, though. If there is a full flight with a low concentration of Elite members, that bodes well for upgrades.

OAK-EWR is seasonal and runs in the summer only.