Originally Posted by
EchoVictor
The one thing that people seem to forget here is that over a long-period (10-20 years) eventually the 1:1 earnings ratio for credit cards has to break.
No it doesn't. Something has to change, but it could just as easily be award mileage inflation (already happened and will continue to happen) and faster expiration of miles (already happened).
I personally would like to also see it become harder to earn miles, but I think an airline that tries to do so is going to really lose a lot of customer goodwill. I've been able to do well redeeming my miles but only because of the knowledge I've gained here at FT. Your average mile-holder will probably just call up or get online and if they don't find any SkySaver in 5 minutes they'll either: 1) book the SkyChoice, 2) buy the ticket, 3) not take the trip, or 4) come onto FT and b*tch about the lack of SkySaver (or maybe a combination of the four).
Back to the original post, I don't think a revenue-based FF program will be popular anytime soon. Independence Air tried it, and some other airlines sort-of tried it or are trying it with 50% EQMs. Many hotel chains are able to have a revenue based program (fixed points/miles per $) by compensating slightly with stay/night credit toward elite status, along with options to earned fixed points/miles per stay. Without segment credit, that trade-off would not exist on DL.