I am sure a draw out of the hat would seriously pi$$ off the frequent revenue bringer = high status pax of any one airline.

Business sense is to look at who brings what revenue - data that the airline will have on hand in such a situation - when trying to deal with less available seats than required in a situation such as you describe.

Common sense - IMHO - would be to satisfy those that bring me most revenue - either at that moment - i.e priority to full fare or to prioritize by status - which works quite well on the European FFP - as they are far more revenue driven than the US ones. The status orientation would ensure future loyalty - because it will steer new and or keep existing business - whereas a one of pax shows little loyalty beyond price concerns.

Any business tries to build on its repeat customers as a basis - new business is good to get but IMHO again retaining is business is more important.

Why do I focus on one airline - because I know that when someting goes wrong they - in my case LH as a LH HON - will take great care in working out the best solution - which in cases have even gotten me there earlier than the cancelled option that I had booked. FFP are not only about miles and lounges - the real importance with frequent flying lies in what happens when something goes wrong.

Cheers

Thomas