I agree with the assessment that pre-paid is a much smaller risk.

If it's just a rate that guaranteed, I'd expect there to be a good chance the hotel will bounce it -- the people at the front desk will see the $25 rate for a room they have been had everyone checking in at $250 all day (an example), and they will be afraid for their own jobs and figure there's simply no way they will get in trouble for sending you away.

But on the pre-paid stuff you should be good if they never contact you.

Steve