I've had this happen three times. All of the above symptoms and then bloody snot afterward as well. Once the pain was above the eye (frontal sinus) and twice below the eye and into the top teeth (maxillary sinus).

I have allergies and have had nasal polyps. I've flown while congested or while getting over colds many times without it happening. Totally unpredictable.

Sudafed is key. I now take it liberally when I fly if I am the least bit congested. Afrin nasal spray, too. I fear my methods are not infallible, though.