FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Irrational: I avoid 2-engine 777 transpacific
Old Nov 3, 2006 | 10:30 am
  #67  
Jenbel
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Originally Posted by alanh
However, the problem with environmental issues is they tend to affect all engines. Four engine planes have been brought down by birdstrikes, too.
That's not true actually for birdstrikes. The vast majority of birdstrikes which involve engines only involve one. To involve all four is actually pretty rare, because it needs to be a pretty big flock of birds to cover the distance between a 747's no. 1 and no. 4 engine - involving both on a twin is actually a lot more common, as a smaller flock can straddle both engines. Modelling has shown that <10% of occasions of a four engined-plane passing through a flock of geese will all four engines be involved, and real life data supported the model when analysed. The mode was 1, and the median was between 1 and 2 I think).

There's never been a modern day commercial four engined jet taken down by birds - the last four engined jet to be lost was an AWACs (modified 707), and that did not involve all engines, but rather occured at a critical phase of flight. The data shows that generally, four-engined aircraft are safer from birdstrike risk, such that at some airports with extreme hazards, airlines have adopted policy of only using 4-engined aircraft.

Where it isn't a factor is in transpacific ETOPs - the highest recorded birdstrike was at 39000 (with a rumour of one at 48000! ) - but the vast majority of strikes occur below 2000. Out over the Pacific, you'd need a minor miracle to hit anything at cruise altitude, because it is not a migratory route (strikes above 2000 feet tend to involve birds which are on migration). At the same time, I used the incident to show that there have been incidents when a couple of extra engines on the plane would have been nice to have!
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