Originally Posted by Anglo Large Clawed Otter

If your flight is on a Thurs or Fri, you may not upgrade at all on the IAH-MSY segment. I fly this route 2-3 times per month, and only have about a 70% upgrade success rate as a Plat. If you're that worried about the upgrade, buy up to Full Y for a confirmed Elite Upgrade, or even F for the outbound (the fare difference on this route is minimal...with Full Y about $100 more than discount, and F an additional $50). The flight can be less than one hour wheels up to wheels down. I'm lucky to finish my G&T on flights where I've scored the front seat.

I suspect a significant number of former MSY residents are still residing in Houston (for work purposes) and returning to MSY on the weekends, making u/g's on this route difficult as the weekend approaches. This route used to be a slam-dunk for u/g's...not so much anymore, depending on the time you fly.