Originally Posted by BOH
Yes they will.
1. It has a 30+ year program life, we are currently at year 0 for in-service.
2. Air travel overall pax #'s are forecast to triple by 2030
3. More airports are going to get more congested = more efficient use of slots
4. Environmental concerns will stop any more new mega airports on the scale of DFW, MUC, DEN etc being built
5. As per 4, no new runways are really going to be allowed (personally I doubt even LHR will get its third runway)
6. The point-point market championed by some has a finite growth potential as there are simply not an infinite # of city pairs to get a daily direct service. Many O&D pax will still exist between LON-NYC, FRA-LAX, JNB-LON etc.
7. Points 1-6 mean the time will come when the only way to increase pax #'s within the existing infrastructure will be to use existing slots more efficiently by moving more pax per slot.
Personally I think both the VLA and point-point segments will flourish and Airbus will get to 500+ A380 frames. It just might take longer than their original business plan though
As per #3, much of the increase will be in the 3rd world not the 1st. Have you heard seen any of the new airports being built in China? I have - new, big, efficient. Even India is starting to get its construction going now.
The A380 will probably be found on many of the routes that you suggest. Do you need 700 huge planes to run LHR-JNB? I don't think so.