My sample size is admittedly small, but I've gotten upgraded two times out of two when staying on awards, and zero out of one when paying. Radisson Plaza HEL and Radisson Royal BRU bumped me up to the executive floor; Radisson Nydalen OSL didn't (although I'm not sure they even have one?). I suspect it's harder to get upgrades in Norway/Sweden/Denmark because there are so many EBGs there...