No delivery slots for any of these aircraft between now and 2008, so they would have to buy used (maybe the 3 CX A346s that are coming off-lease in a few months, which CX is very unhappy with)?

Obviously all twins need ETOPS rating of 180 or 207 for trans-pacific use, but hasn't UA operated 777s on SFO-SYD already (or is it only ex-LAX?). I haven't checked the charts but would think the ETOPS routing out of SFO and LAX is pretty much identical. Of course getting ETOPS qualified for a brand-new airline is tough and would probably delay start of operations by many months, so I agree that most likely is A346 for this route. As for 744s stacked up in the AZ desert, is this really true? There is a hot market for 744s that are still flyable right now (both for freighter conversion and for pax use), with several airlines having stated that they simply cannot find any used ones "in good condition and at a good price". After the QF "3 ugly sisters" fiasco there is probably some concern about getting 744s in the right condition prior to purchase.