Benjh - Unless the rules have changed dramatically in the last couple of weeks, you will not get an upgrade. You have 2 problems.
1 - As the CO website clearly states " [B]OnePass Elite upgrades are valid for travel within or between the 48 contiguous U.S., Alaska, Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean and Central and South America. Elite upgrades are also available on select flights within or between the Mid Pacific and Asia. Continental Airlines flights with a BusinessFirst cabin, including transatlantic and transpacific flights, flights to/from Central and South America, or within and between Hawaii, the Mid Pacific and Asia are not eligible for Elite upgrades." [/B] The 777 to and from EWR-TLV is a buisinessfirst product and also transatlantic. (Although I was upgraded EWR-LIM and LIM-EWR, as a silver, even though it appeared onboard as though the 757 was a businessfirst cabin.

2 - The observation has been made here on FT before and there is no reason to believe that it is not true. Israel probably has the one of the highest concentrations of plats anywhere in the world. Think about it, anyone flying 2.5 rt's times on a cattle class ticket is elite. This is without full Y fares or BF tickets. Logic would only dictate that passengers flying for business, or B + pleasure are at least silver elite. I am not even thinking about passengers who would have flown to other destinations on ST miles.

Have a great flight, because it is, but enjoy it in Y, I may be there with you.