Strategies Revealed by Program Changes:

1. Over time, PMs, GMs, and SMs will run out of upgrade points. There will be more purchases of upgrade points. = hence more revenue to DL.

2. Stand-by gate upgrades for $XXX will probably disappear -- assuming that paid upgrades fall behind in priority to PMs, GMs, and SMs attempting to upgrade on LUT fares on day of departure. First will definitely be full on every meal flight...during May through December 2003 as there will be a huge number of 500 mile upgrade points converted from 800 MSUs that can be used on LUT fares!

3. Medallions will use up or run out of their points, hence there will be decreased frustration that a benefit was taken away unused each year. Unused NAMUs will also become a thing of the past.

4. Interesting that International upgrade policies were left alone. I think this overall change reflects a longer term strategy of DL doing away with domestic first class ala Low Cost Carrier. This program begins to wean medallions from upgrades as a privilege. Premium classes on international flights will continue to be offered, as there is a lot of revenue generated from international BE. I would expect DL to continue to restrict 500 mile upgrade certs in future years as more and more first class seats are removed from the DL fleet -- as they are converted to LCC flying. (Assuming LCC is successful).

5. I assume that some sort of pre-negotiation went on with CO and NW regarding this program. This program may be a logical compromise between the programs for domestic upgrades, should their new alliance be approved.

6. DL will probably institute an automated system for upgrades, so that customers do not have to constantly look at their watches to remember to upgrade. Just add your name to the list, and have the system automatically upgrade you per your status/fare at the proper window.

7. I suspect that we will see Gold and Silver Memberships available on ebay after 2003 being sold by 75,000+ Qpoint Golds and 125,000+ Qpoint Platinums. What should the going rate be? That could be worth $250 for Silver... Maybe up-to $500-$700 for Gold... What do you think? It's amazing how many "friends" you can find on E-Bay!

8. The transition for PMs and GMs seems acceptable. It probably will not run-off too many folks in 2003...unless they absolutely hate the new program and just comp & earn on another airline for 2004 elite qualification. MRTC remains a very attractive competitive alternative!

9. Going back to even more same-day stand-by gate upgrades proves that the taking away same-day upgrades to get on an earlier flight had nothing to do with cost or time to process.... it was simply a revenue move to encourage people to book full fare for schedule flexibility.

10. It would be interesting to see the cost/benefit analysis of these changes. Right now, it seems like the program appears to be more things to all people...but over time, having enough upgrade points will become an issue. Die-hard first class flyers...will be getting out their credit cards more often to buy those points!"

I'll look forward to everyone elses comments. How many pages will this post have by the time we get tired? Any guesses?