My money says it won't die at all. With the growing Asian economies which in reality is the future Airbus / Boeing VLA target market, and that it will have a 20-30 year program life will ensure many more than 24-36 are built. It certainly is not the answer for every airline. But rising fuel prices, pax numbers and increasingly scarce slots at congested airports will mean VLA's have a future.

And as I have posted before, there is a real belief now that legislation in the name of the environment will penalise airlines who run 2-3 a/c per day on the same route when 1 VLA could shift the same # of pax. Of course everyone prefers higher frequency service over a VLA but if punitive charges are levied and / or legislation is passed then every airline will be in the same position. It will come - I'm not saying it is right or wrong but air travel is the last major method of transport in the travel field where airlines can more or less do what they want (with the exception of noise) in terms of pollution.

So if an airport management (or the politicians) for LHR, CDG, FRA, LAX, SYD for example decide rather than build any more new runways they will "encourage" (or penalise if not) airlines running multiple daily services to consolidate into 1-2 VLA flights what will happen?. This is a real possibility 5+ years out from now that if a route supports say 1200 pax per day, airlines choosing to serve this with 4 x 300 seaters might find they are very heavily penalised for doing this in comparison with a competitor running 2 x VLA.