Recent conversation with Marriott, at least in our case, has shown that the hotel cert can be "bought up" in certain circumstances, in our case due to "category creep".
If re-depositing the cert, the "penalty" is essentially the gain one has achieved by buying the package vs the straight air miles. The cert can also be extended for a year for free. Obviously, the cert can be used for a hotel of lesser category, with no residual value. I did not question specifically about "buying down".
Pat