I am dubious that the slope is that slippery, that the federal government is that interested in or capable of doing much with a national ID, or that the resolve of the citizens of the United States would become weak enough that an ID would become an instrument of broad infringements of civil liberties.
At the same time, however, I am equally skeptical of the ability of the government to use an ID program as a preventitive against terrorism. Their efforts at intelligence, immigration control and domestic security (if only for the restricted airspace within Washington, DC) do not provide any sense of comfort as to the efficacy of any National function.