BruceB
Thanks for giving us an outlet. I make Platinum every year on miles and mostly fly last minute on Y/B/M fares out of PDX, which means connections and long flights. After thinking through the changes, it appears that my incentive to make Platinum and give Delta all my east/west business has been greatly reduced.
I tried to quantify what the impact could be and analyzed a simple but realistic example hoping to understand the potential impact. I would appreciate any clarifications to my understanding of the new program.
A platinum flys transcontinental on 20 trips a year (40 flights assuming 2,500 miles each way and 100,000 actual miles). I pulled the fares from PDX to JFK for short notice travel and got a quote of $1,720 RT in B/M classes.
If platinums receive 6 complimentary one way upgrades, then I need to earn miles points for 34 flights (40 - 6).
The 100,000 actual miles will generate a credit of 150,000 do to the B/M class 1.5 bonus and create 60 500 miles points (150,000 MQM miles / 10,000 miles points threshold = 15 * 4 per 10,000 miles = 60 miles points).
The remaining 34 flights would require 170 miles points to upgrade (34 flights * 2,500 miles per flight = 85,000 miles / 500 miles per point).
I would be 110 miles point short to upgrade all the flights (170 miles points required - 60 miles points earned). This would mean that 22 of the 40 flights would be in coach (55%). (110 miles points * 500 miles per point = 55,000 miles / 2,500 miles per flight = 22 flights in the back of the bus).
The revenue generated for Delta would be $34,407. Under the current program and with some flexibility on the routing, I would probably upgrade on 38 to 39 of the 40 flights.
If 55% of the time I am going to be in coach, why would I connect through SLC or ATL vs flying direct on Continental at $1,720 per pop or go through Seattle on Alaska in first. Free CRC and making my nephew a Gold are not worth 55,000 miles transcon with my knees in my chest.
It seems like a big hit to your existing high margin traffic. Am I missing something?
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PDX DL PM/MM AS/Gold MVP UAL/PE Marriott Gold