dbk10

I'm hoping someone could offer some constructive advice. I'm debating between purchasing an upgradeable fare and a first class ticket for a flight I want to take in June (19th - 22nd). When I do a search in first class there are a few seats available, but of course, Delta's stinginess has made it so that there are no upgrades at the current moment, speaking to a representative last night, I was told that I would be the first person on the waitlist and I am a platinum. I am going the weekend of the Mayor's Marathon in Anchorage and would like to assume that most people that are running in the marathon (with the exception of myself) have already booked their tickets and thus I would have a good chance of getting my upgrade. However, it is a long flight from NYC and I am going to be very sore afterwards and will want to stretch out.

Is it worth buying an upgradeable fare and taking my chances or do those experienced think that I should just suck it up and pay the $$$ to guarantee first?