I would be really curious to know how the yield management algorithms work when it comes to this type of stuff. I know with absolute certainty though, that it used to be 2 seats held (regardless of type of aircraft), but that changed quite a few years back now. I would say your 20% (or more) figure is conservative…it may even be a higher % based on what I have see when cross-referencing EF inventory/seat maps/etc. A lot of the domestic first class inventory is now sold as Y-UPxxx booked into “P” so I don’t know how that factors in either. I would bet (& hope from an AMR shareholder’s perspective) that their YM algorithms are sophisticated enough (based on historical, actual & forecast: flight, routing & load factors) that each individual flight’s inventory is managed on a case-by-case situation. Automatically, by computer, that is until you get down closer to the 2-3 hour departure window (not that award seats, upgrades, etc aren’t released manually before that timeframe under some circumstances & more so for Intl flights). Lots of factors play in and even though I don’t see my upgrades clearly at the ‘window’ as much as they used to in the old days, they typically do clear (just ends up being closer to departure).

Another thing I’m curious about is how the upgrade priority/waitlist queue is managed—the status part is simple, but I’m wondering if the comments made on other discussions about checking in (online) 24 hours in advance makes any difference versus not checking & doing so at the airport? That seems contrarian to what I have experienced…