unless you can get the annual fee refunded (at least pro rata) - but I wouldn't think that. Either case it's good to keep the card 6 months before cancelling. So I'd go with the 20k/no fee

edited to add: It's interesting though, that we are now above 20k bonus miles for a credit card. I find that quite amazing - just think how much that must cost citibank. For some (sad) reason, in Europe they give us 5000, at most