Originally Posted by ContinentalFan
I don't think that the group here is representative of Continental customers, but I do agree that people face a price squeeze at various times. I am one of those. I freely admit that I have flown for two or three years on Continental on highly discounted fares. I traipsed back and forth across the US on 777's and 767's (sadly, they've gone) and quite often on 757's, enjoying a variety of BF at an extremely discounted price. I frankly felt like a shoplifter getting rewarded with frequent shopper points
I actually didn't feel like that, but I probably should have. I did think that the situation was ludicrous. I didn't like the EQM change that was made because it had the potential to hurt me; I also wonder what the heck took the airline so long in fixing the Elite program.
Why are you such a self-loathing, lite elite?
Why is it ludicrous to get upgraded into a F/BF seat that nobody purchased prior to departure?
As others have said, I think the majority of travelers are mixed fare pax. Most of your analysis seems to be focused on the impact of elites on domestic upgrades and the purported cost to CO of too many upgrades for non-deserving, lower-fare pax. Many executives and others are permitted to purchase premium cabin travel, however, the vast majority of business travelers still are required to purchase coach fares and make the choice based on loyalty, schedule, and availability. One trip, a plat might buy a U fare, a Y/YUP on another, a Z that happens to be cheaper than a Y, and an X on yet another.
Under the current OnePass rules, an elite knows that they can buy a Z or YUP for a relatively reasonable price (especially on last-minute travel) and have a shot at EUA or battlefield if traveling on a mid-range econ fare. They also will have a sense of what their upgrade chances are when buying a ticket (ie, a gold on T fare on a peak day/route should not expect an EUA). This consistency of CO's frequent flyer program and knowledge (through objective criteria and past experience) of mileage accrual and upgrade procedures is what will keep elites buying CO tickets when they aren't buying Y, Z, or A. If I've interpreted you correctly, you propose a ranking of each individual member based on spending habits and 'value' to CO. If CO implemented an exceedingly complex new scheme such as the one you have proposed, CO likely would be left with a handful on high-spending type elites and hub-dwellers, but would lose a large portion of its regular flyers (who generate plenty of revenue) to airlines like NW (for easier upgrade chances/simpler elite rules) or UA (E+ if cannot upgrade). I think that at the end of the day, while CO would be serving a "preferred" customer base, they would lose money unless they downsized the fleet. There are just too many variables involved to make your system achieve what you want it to achieve.