Reluctantly, I'm about to book a 'Direct' flight (PDX-MSP-LGA, taking advantage of this $228 all-in coast to coast fare). I know all the downsides of booking a 'direct' flight (i.e, more than one stop, flight number doesn't change), however if I want this great 'K' fare, I have no choice. I have three questions:

1) Does the SAME exact seat need to open in FC for both flights (PDX-MSP and MSP-LGA) in order for the pax to be upgraded?

2) As a Platinum traveling with a companion on the same PNR, I'd get two seats up front IF there's R availability at the Plat window, which is difficult enough on a non-Direct flight. Can I pretty much kiss the two upgrades goodbye with Direct flight (because of the added difficulties of getting upgraded on a 'Direct' flight?

3) If there is a silver lining, it's the fact that I have a choice of two 'Direct' flights… PDX-MSP-LGA, or PDX-MSP-MEM (then MEM-LGA) for about the same flight. I know the MEM routing would end up giving me a total of 375 extra EQM's.
By taking the PDX-(MSP)-MEM, I get 'robbed' of 270 EQMs (since the flight will be calculated as PDX-MEM=1,854 EQM versus PDX-MSP=1,423 + MSP-MEM=701, which total 2,124, but are my chances for getting upgraded better on the PDX-(MSP)-MEM than the PDX-(MSP)-LGA? The flights will be on a Monday. The PDX-(MSP)-MEM flight is served by a 753 (24 FC seats), leaves PDX at 12pm and gets to LGA at 10:35pm. The PDX-(MSP)-LGA is served with a 752 (22 FC seats), leaves PDX at 8:55am, and gets to MEM at 5:22pm. My intuition tells me that the chances for two of us to get upgraded are better on the PDX-(MSP)-MEM flights (even though that flight might have a higher load of Elites traveling PDX-MSP on a Monday morning). what are your thoughts (or experiences?)

Thanks!

Am I over analyzing this situation (then again, isn't that what FT is all about anyway?)