Survive the flight? Yes, just put it under the seat in front of you and be careful not to kick. Survive the security conveyor and you having to pick the box up and put it down all the time? Probably not. In a perfect world you could buy them unfrosted and frost them in Detroit, but I'm guessing that's not an option?

If it were me, I'd find a more secure holder for the cupcakes than the flimsy bakery box. If you have one, a plastic cake holder turned upside down does a great job (yes, I've tried it.) If you don't have that, a sturdy but shallow cardboard box would probably work. Either way, cram them in there tight together and don't give them any room to shift around.