4 hours before my flight this morning, only 5 of 10 CoachChoice seats were filled. 4 of those had been filled since before the day of the announcement, meaning only 1 had been purchased for $15. I had watched the seat map like a hawk for days, moving up from 40D and finally snagging 18C on a 753.

The flight had been zeroed out in all fare classes for days. At the airport, the flight was totally packed, oversold, and they needed a number of volunteers. Every seat was full.

Since NW states they are not charging for CoachChoice when there are no other seats on the plane, it stands to reason that unless a few nincompoops actually paid for the Choice seats at the airport, those seats were filled at the last minute, for free, by travelers probably without status (or they would have picked a P seat earlier) and/or without either the interest/time/compulsiveness to get a seat assignment in advance. In other words, the seats were not bought at the last minute by high value business travelers. NW successfully placed Ma and Pa Kettle, Joe Schmoe, and Joe Sixpack (all people I would like to meet!) in the Exit Rows while their Elites sat in the leftover middles, regular aisles, and back of the plane! And they made $15 doing it!

How the heck does this make sense???

[I realize there are some assumptions in the above model, but NW would have to be pretty gutsy to keep selling the CoachChoice seats at the airport when they know all the seats are full and they have promised not to charge for them when there are no other options.]