I'd say this is more an issue about the CX flight, if it's often late to arrive, then you could have a problem...I've no information regarding this particular leg but usually they should build even the strongest head wind sparetime in schedules..In normal conditions = CX flight leaves on time, 1h25m is more than enough @FRA, especially if you get your luggage tagged through...anyway I'd say the above mentioned 10% chance of you to make it sounds too low estimate to me...