The time is right...NWA should be out of business in no time flat, probably right after they start charging $15 to use the lav, and a pilot strike or work slowdown at DL should put them out of their misery soon enough.

I think UA and CO are a knockout combination...the merged carrier would be much smaller than UA is now, perhaps sized about the same as DL. My best guess is CO will leave Skyteam to join * Alliance and then stop codeshares and all marketing connections with NW and DL, then begin codeshares with UA. TED will go away, as Gordon has been burned once with an airline-within-an-airline.

I think the process will be slow and one step at a time. Alliance-->codeshares-->marketing tie-ins-->initial FFP integration-->3rd party holding company buyout of both carriers-->staffing/route/fleet adjustments-->full FFP integration-->one carrier, one name, one image

For the FFP...my guess is Platinum will become 100K with SWUs and unlimited domestic upgrades, while the next two tiers will lose free unlimited upgrades in favor of u/g certs (similar to AA's program).