While many consider the current situation to be more like May 1992 than May 1973, and based on what little experience I have here, it doesn't seem like this will get nearly as violent as either of those two previous incidents. Most Thais have little to gain, and a lot to lose if things get out of control, excepting the two adversaries in this showdown. I'll be out and about today but will avoid the area where the rally is planned.
You have plenty of time between now and May to make a go/no-go decision.
Regarding Koh Samui, most tourists seem to traverse the island without incident, but there have been numerous letter to the editor in the local English-language press about minor, and major incidents ranging from taxi extortion, purse-snatching and mugging to assault, and in an recent unfortunate incident, the rape and murder of a young British woman. I've been, although it was ~ 1 year ago, and did not have or observe any problems, but knowing what I now know I would be extremely careful. There seems to be a bit of lawlessness to the place?
For the latest dirt on Samui you can catch up here:
http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?showforum=30
Foreigners warned about Saturday's Anti-Thaksin demonstration
The U.S. Embassy in Thailand on Thursday warned American citizens to stay away from an anti-government rally planned Saturday in Bangkok for fear of violence.
Public Announcement from U.S. Embassy Bangkok
Date: Thu, 2 Feb 2006 10:34:52 +0700[/b]
Attention American Citizens:
The Royal Thai Police (RTP) authorities have confirmed that a
large demonstration is expected to occur in the area of the King Rama 5
statue, Rajdamneon Avenue, near Sanam Luang and Government House in
Bangkok on Saturday, February 4. Police estimate up to 100,000 people
will gather in an anti-Thai Prime Minister Thaksin demonstration headed
by Sonthi Limthongkul, a prominent Thai government critic. The crowd
will include several diverse groups of demonstrators and is expected to
start assembling in the morning with no announced starting or ending
times. Organizers have not indicated a marching route, should they
leave the area.
Bangkok demonstrations are usually peaceful in nature, but all
demonstrations are unpredictable and conditions can change unexpectedly.
The RTP has indicated that 2,000 - 3,000 police officers will be on hand
to maintain public order. There are concerns that anti-Sonthi groups
may attempt to confront the demonstrators, which could lead to violence.
For this reason, please do not approach the demonstrators.
The Embassy encourages all Americans to avoid this area. Should you
find yourself in or near the demonstrators, move indoors for shelter
until the demonstration has passed, or ask for police assistance to
leave the area. While the demonstration is not expected to pass near
U.S. Embassy facilities, Embassy entrances and functions may be
restricted depending on circumstances.
For the latest security information, Americans living and traveling
abroad should regularly monitor the Department's Bureau of Consular
Affairs Internet web site at
http://travel.state.gov, where the current
Worldwide Caution, Public Announcements, and Travel Warnings can be
found. Up-to-date information on security can also be obtained by
calling 1-888-407-4747 toll free in the U.S., or, for callers outside
the U.S. and Canada, a regular toll line at 1-317-472-2328. These
numbers are available from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time, Monday
through Friday (except U.S. federal holidays).
--US Embassy, Bangkok, 2006-02-02