The airlines have high costs. Except for Southwest, they are generally inefficient. Their corporate structures and labor contracts are so entrenched that it will be difficult to streamline costs.

Consider the revenue side. When the airlines lose their most profitable customers - the business travelers - they enter survival mode. It appears that the typical business traveler will not return soon at pre 9/11 full fare rates. That's a killer for the cents-per-passenger-mile calculation.

The new issue of Money Magazine has an article profiling the major carriers. It’s not pretty reading. The magazine recommends taking a chance on investing in UA as a "bottom feeder". That's what this industry has come to.

It's clear that times are so tough for the airlines that not all of them will survive. Except for Southwest, none of them are making money, nor have they been. Southwest has a market cap that is greater than the combined market caps of its six larger competitors! DL has a strong balance sheet, but the income statement doesn’t match. Does all of that that foretell danger in this industry? How long can US last without a merger?

Some fares - where the airlines want to create action - have been or continue to be as low as ever. Last week's one-day PIT sale. The continuing SIN fares. The usual Turkey Day sale fares. Current Europe sales (even though they may well be lower in January, based on past experience). Etc.

Think about another aspect of this whole situation. Airlines generally have their best results when the economy is doing well. Even though there were signs of a coming recession before 9/11, the economy continued to chug along this year until 9/11. Yet the airlines were losing money. Something’s wrong with the airline industry….

My guess is that it's likely that mostly full flights will be the general rule before very many cancelled flights will be resurrected. Yes, there are many full flights now. Try flying on a Sunday afternoon or a Monday morning or a Thursday or Friday evening. But many, many flights during the rest of the week are still running more than half-empty. That's not a healthy sign for an industry that is hemorrhaging.

I flew into MHT last evening and noticed a big UA banner advertising new service between MHT and IAD, a UA hub, starting in early December. That's evidence that some flights will resume or start anew. But I'm guessing that some of the more unprofitable mostly empty-plane routes of the past will not come back.

DL and the other carriers have an almost unsolvable puzzle. Virtually all of the things that we want, as frequent flyers, cost money. More flights. Better (or more) meals. Personalized service. More liberal upgrades. Easier routes to PM. Etc. Extra money is not something the airlines have to throw around these days. So either the airlines spend money that they don’t have, or they risk losing more of our business.

Sounds like a Hobson’s choice to me.