My two cents (or 1 FF mile?), based on my AA, UA, and US experience:
- I have never found a situation where the 25K award was available AND low fares were NOT available. If I price out tickets for a domestic routing and find anything higher than about $400, I know good and well that 25K awards are long gone. Perhaps that's because AA and UA are stingier than everyone else and I've been living in the dark for too long. I would love to hear more about the 20K-for-$2000 ticket scenario (routing, airline, etc.).
- I've had slightly better luck getting domestic biz/first-class awards (capacity-controlled, 40K) on somewhat full flights. I've also had good luck using TW short-haul awards, but that's a unique case as far as I know.
- The FF award that is most valuable to me is the 40K "AAnytime" coach award. I have used a couple of these over the past 2 years when I *really* needed to travel, and all airfares - even on circuitous routings or to secondary airports - were $800-1000. Redeem the 40K award, pick your favorite flights, and you've just earned a REAL two to three cents per mile, along with the subjective benefits of flying your preferred route, carrier, times, local airports, etc.
- I also like the relative flexibility when changing an award. Compared to the draconian rules surrounding discounted coach, it's refreshing.