I'm wondering the same thing. I'm flying MKE->CLT on Monday and was not upgraded on either flight. I acted like I was buying a first class ticket and ony 1ABCD were taken from MKE-->DTW and there was only a few seats taken from DTW-->CLT.

On the way home on Wed I only got upgraded on my CLT-->DTW leg and I was the only person in first. Maybe the computers have less seats in "R" than before, this is not a situation where there are more elites because of end of year new elites and some elites leaving but still active until Feb.