Re: OP. I think the problem is real and is probably one of those "tipping point" things where people will lose confidence at some point, the on-the-ground promotional tie-ins won't be as effective anymore, and mainstream media columnists will put out the word that you'll either pay a lot more miles than expected or won't get an award.

But, for now, many of the contrary points are valid. Most people don't strategize and there are a lot of non-redeemable small blocks. OTOH, I think that part is already "priced into the shares," as it were.

I think what'll really put the pressure on is baby boom retirements. Lots of mile-savvy people with huge balances who were short on time for award trips while working and want to travel in retirement. The first boomers will hit 62 in 2008 and 65 in 2011.