I don't have to read this article to come to the conclusion that Brancatelli's article (as usual) is likely full of it. This is for several reasons:

1) Brancatelli has historically assumed that the only usage for miles has been domestic award tickets. (In fact, this is the same person who, earlier this year, concluded that the value of miles has decreased by giving the singular example of using 25,000 miles to buy a $200 transcon.) Given that airlines have been more flexible in how miles can be redeemed - be it through the redemption for upgrades or even for magazine subscriptions - I don't think that redemption is as limited or as in peril as Brancatelli would like people to believe.

2) The vast majority of miles go unused, due to capacity controls and expiration. And I'd venture that for every one person banking 1 million miles in their FFP account, there are another 1 million miles or more being banked by hundreds of people who each have a few thousand or less miles in their accounts.

In other words, millions of miles sit out there, unused, because they aren't in enough of a concentration to be used by any single person for a single ticket.

3) Even if there are too many miles out there, it's not the FFPs that are in trouble. It's the holders of the miles. Basic economics will dictate that if there is too much currency out there, prices will increase accordingly (in this form, the number of miles required for redemption). While this is something that no one here wants to hear, it's the more logical solution than having the FFP shut down altogether (especially given that, for many airlines, the FFP is the profitable element).

Mike