I am flying SFO-NRT on the same exact day as you, the 11.20am flight. I am currently scheduled to sit on 15A on that flight. I got upgraded on the spot when I paid for the tickets. This was back in September. However, on the return, NRT-SFO on 11/28, I was waitlisted and even though there were over 55 seats unsold in C, I was waitlisted all the way until 2 days ago when it cleared.

On the NRT-SFO, the agent told me there was over 25 people on the WL. But if the cabin is empty, do not worry about it, I think you will clear