Assumptions:

• The 72-hour rule was implemented to protect revenue by reducing the number of “phantom bookings” into J. Since implementation, the goal has been accomplished albeit with the side effect of unsold seats flying empty – even if a person is willing to use miles and money to upgrade.
• Should the 72 hour be removed, the phantom problem would return. The reason it would return would be that every elite member (under the current rules) would be able to ‘phantom’ themselves into BF.
• The existence of 30,000 Platinums, 60,000 Golds, and 110,000 Silvers
• Of the 30,000 Platinums, only 7,000 fly more than 125,000k a year
• OnePass could generate more revenue (due to decreased customer attrition) if an incremental reward was offered after the 75,000 mark
• Not every elite member is a FlyerTalker

Problem:
Customers become irritated when they are told there is no more upgrade space yet the plane flies with empty J seats.

Solution:
Establish a system that allocates open J seats until departure time to customers wanting to upgrade (assuming the seat(s) will go unsold) yet avoids phantom bookings.

Additional Factors and Assumptions: Folks have expressed a love/hate relationship with OnePass. They love the domestic upgrades to a quality FC product yet loathe the international upgrade side due to fees, poor availability, and the termination of the UG list 72 hours prior to departure. This negative image OnePass carries with international upgrades drives potential profitable customers towards competitors.

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Two pronged solution:
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:-:Part A: :-:
As there will always be a need for the 72-hour rule in the future it cannot be done away with. However, the effects can be mitigated. I suggest CO implement a discount table based upon status for the co-pay fee. (And no chansbondy I don’t think BF should just be given away or that CO should give up the revenue associated with the upgrade co-pays. I just happen to be of the mindset that the current international upgrade policies turn many potential customers off from CO) An example of this would be that Silvers pay the fee minus $50 each way (for a total savings of $100 round trip), Golds pay the fee minus $75 each way (a net savings of $150 round trip) and Plats pay the upgrade fee minus $100 each way (a net savings of $200 round trip).

While the 72-hour rule would still apply, I feel the ‘worth’ of elite status would increase due to the loyalty discounts. Moreover, it would help shine CO’s tarnished international upgrade reputation.

An applied example of this:
James, a Gold Elite, needs to travel overseas. He calls CO to book to ensure there is upgrade space on his selected flights. However, only the outbound is open for upgrades. But, being as he needs to travel on these days for business he goes ahead and books the outbound flight in U and the return in X. After booking the flight, 40,000 miles are deducted from his OnePass account and he pays a fee of $325 ($400 - $75) for the outbound and a fee of $375 ($450 - $75) for the return. However, despite several seats being open on the return when the 72-hour mark rolls around, James is dropped from BF standby as the wait list closed. The miles are re-deposited, the money refunded, and James enjoys Y on the way back.

While he did not get upgraded on the return, despite there being open seats, he still received a loyalty discount for the upgrade he did enjoy.

:-:Part B: :-:
Offer PlatSWUs to customers every 25k miles after they pass the 75k mark. An example of this would be when a customer reaches 75,000 he/she is (re)qualified for Platinum status but not for a PlatSWUs - however, when this person crosses the 100,000/125,000/150,000/etc mark he/she receives one. What a PlatSWUs would do is allow the bearer to continue to stand by after the 72-hour window. A PlatSWU would be only upgrade either the outbound or return leg (although two could be used to upgrade a round trip) While the bearer would still be subject to a co-pay on applicable fares, he/she could enjoy a $200 discount. (The reason I choose $200 was that it cost $200 to upgrade from K fares – so essentially a ‘super Plat’ could upgrade with no charge from Y/H/K vis-à-vis Y/H. FYI, it would cost $100 to upgrade from N fares, $150 from B/O fares, $200 from V/U fares, and $250 from Q, I, S, W, T, X, L fares. All figures listed are based on one-way travel.)

While bearers of PlatSWUs could create a phantom to ensure their space available upgrade clears at the airport, I do not think this will present a problem due to the high requirements of obtaining an PlatSWU. Moreover, with certificates being limited to such a small group, ‘necromancers’ would be easier to spot and deal with.

Secondly, CO offers real incremental bonuses for their high mileage customers without adding the complexity of a fourth tier into OnePass.

An applied example would be:
Suppose that James has now flown enough to reach the 100k mark. He receives one PlatSWU, which is great for him as he needs to make another international trip. Well, as he only has one (which is only good for either the outbound or return) he calls CO with his flight (he is in K on the outbound and S on the return) information. As it turns out, the outbound flight is upgradeable via normal methods, so he pays the upgrade co-pay of $100 ($200-$100) plus 20,000 miles.

However, the return is currently waitlisted. But, James really would like to be in BF and as he did not make it last time, even though there were empty seats, he decides to use his PlatSWU for the return. James pays the co-pay of $250 ($400-$250) and is then added to the waitlist. The 72-hour window rolls around for the return with no upgrades occurring despite there being 4 open seats. But, due to the PlatSWU James stays on standby for BF. At the airport three seats remain empty and James is then cleared for BF.

Well, there you have it. A suggestion for redoing the 72-hour rule straight from my favorite armchair. I’d be really interested in hearing comments as to what y’all think about this.

Regards,
J.Edward

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A note to the lurkers (y’all know who you are):

While I know there are many factors I am not considering here due to my sheer ignorance of internal Continental workings, technical restraints, and various load factors – I’ve done what I could with the limited data available. While I do not believe what I’ve outlined above will work as is, I’m sure us FlyerTalkers can offer some helpful brainstorming. Thanks again for taking the time to listen to us.