Originally Posted by mosburger
I would reserve a NRT hotel of my persuasion, leave all possible luggage there, then head to the city to have dinner and drinks if there is a suitable train back late in the evening. The morning rush hour is bad enough without jetlag and if, just if there should be an earthquake strong enough to shut down train services...
As much as I hate to argue with someone named after my favourite hamburger ... I can't agree. The last Narita Express leaves Shinjuku at 19:42, or Tokyo Station at 20:03. That doesn't allow for much of the evening.
I've never found the morning rush hour time to be any worse than any other time on the Narita Express--just be sure to stay near a N'Ex station, and buy your rail ticket the night before. For example, stay at the Hilton Tokyo or Century Hyatt and walk or take a very short taxi ride to Shinjuku Station. (If you take a taxi, ask to be taken to the South Entrance--say "Shinjuku-eki no minamiguchi, onegai shimasu." That minimises the walk through the station to the platform.)
And the probability of an earthquake shutting down the rail network is very small. I doubt that it happens once in five years.