MagMile, I believe the first place to start is at the design of the program as a business. The FFPs appear to be independently managed and operated. I could only speculate on the true degree of seperateness from the actual airlines but it wouldn't surprise me if it were large and measurable. The recent use of miles/pts as currency also lead to some interesting questions (as for the lack of taxation and market opportunities that are unavailable to retail sales).

If the new currency became strong enough (what that is I don't know) then the lack of some to have full access to it would bring up more questions.

Ultimately these FFPs are heading towards a free exchange system which is what points.com appears to be. Once that happens the true value of the miles/points will be reduced to their marginal value, which is something like $0.013/mile and there will be no incentive to collect them because we would all rather have US$. Thus, the only thing the programs will be good for is verifying your status. No need to worry about Trust problems then.

And, if anyone doubts me, look at the thread of the mile/pts broker by PaulPalmer. That is just a black or grey market, the first step.