Originally Posted by Cohiba
No doubt a UA or DL liquidation, which is not likely, would have a more farreaching impact on the industry and on more consumers, employees, etc. Yet, while such a scenario could be significant to many, a DH liquidation would be just as significant to another group of people, even if that group is not as large. Still, I don't think you can put value on something totally by quantity.
Furthermore, there is a converse to this argument. Because UA and DL are so large, their demise could have a much more positive impact on the industry and consumers than the same taking place at DH (I'm wearing another's shoes here as I don't think a DH demise is a good thing, period). Clearly many want DH to fail, but you said it yourself, that won't change the industry-wide capacity much. The US airline sector needs to see a couple majors kicked to the curb.
If DL or UA were to go away, many existing routes would not exist. Some airports would lose their only airline service. If DH were to go away, it would primarily eliminate excess capacity. Of all of DH's routes, only five are not served by other airlines. And of those five, four are served by other airlines via DCA:
IAD-PBI (alternative: US: DCA-PBI)
IAD-RSW (alternative: US: DCA-RSW, AirTran: DCA-RSW, BWI-RSW)
IAD-HSV (alternative: US: DCA-HSV, DL: DCA-HSV)
IAD-SDF (alternative: US: DCA-SDF)
The only airport that is not served by alternative nonstop flights from Washington is SWF. (However, SWF could be considered the outer reaches of the New York Metro area, with HPN just over 30 miles away, and EWR and LGA around 50 miles - all with plentiful service from Washington D.C.)
An interesting statistic shows increases in airport traffic - most of it claimed to be the 'idependence bubble'. FlyI has dumped excess capacity in the market. The market is not ready to pay sustainable prices for the capacity. Eliminating Indy would reduce capacity with very little impact on routes. Eliminating DL would reduce duplicate routes with AirTran out of ATL, though it would would also eliminate many other routes not served by anybody else (especially international routes) Eliminating United would reduce some of the overlap with Indy at IAD and with AA at ORD. However, many small towns in the midwest would lose their service to ORD. At IAD, eliminating United would eliminate more domestic cities than the elimination of FlyI. Furthermore, the international flights would pretty much be gone. Having to drive 45 minutes to get to SWF is not a big deal. Having to swim 4200 miles to get to Munich is.
http://www.airportsusa.com/snapshottemplate.htm