Originally Posted by entropy
Actually, I suspect that US/HP might end up dropping international... except leisure carribean type work.
Assuming that DL kicks the bucket (yay), and NW, in severe distress, aligns or merges with AA, I can see the following:
AA/NW: the mega fleet of DC9/MD80... with hubs in DFW, ORD, DTW, MSP, LHR and NRT.
CO/UA: 777's of fun: SFO,LAX,EWR/JFK, DEN mini, IAH, CLE and IAD, NRT and LHR. CO takes DL's 777's and 764's and the newer 763s.
The entire A320 fleet/domestic UA 757 fleet becomes Ted's Song.
If these hypotheticals take place here are my thoughts.
An AA/NW merger would result in MSP scaling back to a focus city, DTW would be at most a secondary hub but probably scaled back to a focus city as well. MEM would be a goner due to its proximity to DFW and for that matter MIA. There is no way AA would close up shop at ORD and leave that lucrative market to a UA/CO carrier. AA is only 8% points behind UA in terms of market share and AA actually garners more revenue per passenger than UA. AA could retire NWs fleet of DC9s. As for the A319 and 20s they would have to find something to do with them. AA does not want that many fleet types. They would probably be forced to keep the A330s for NRT due to the fact they have no other aircraft that could fly those routes.
UA/CO would result in IAD being scaled back. You could probably kiss CLE goodbye as a large hub due to its proximity to ORD and the large international presence of UA at ORD. And again I don't see UA/CO leaving AA as the carte blanche carrier of choice at ORD, a very lucrative airport for both. I agree with the ascertian that DEN would be a mini hub at best considering the presence of UA on the left coast. I think a UA/CO hook up would mean Ted would be spun off from the company totally because of the fleet compatability issue. I don't see CO mgmt wanting to deal with a totally seperate fleet of aircraft.
Just my two cents.
I don't know if any of this at all will happen but we will wait and see.