I can see a reasonable arguement that the price of oil could decline by $5 a barrel over the next 5 years (to the low 50's) as the current high prices start to draw in more supply and motivate people and business to use other sources of energy.

The market price can double overnight, but it takes time for users and suppliers to react. In the first year or two oil that was not worth pumping at $25 to $30 a barrel will start to get attention with the market price at a sustained $50. Second, over a two to seven year period people could shift to more efficient vehicles. Finally, five to ten years out you could see alternative fuels and energy sources start to make an impact. We're note talking the price dropping by huge amounts, 10 cents a barrel a month, but a down trend instead of and up trend.

If Iraq resumes production, and South America gets more predictable that can put downward pressure on prices.

Now conteracting that will be the possiblity of lots of new consumption in Asia. But if they are smart, they will figure out how NOT to replicate the usage levels and practices of North America.