Originally Posted by cova
They would if UA shut down. And CO picked up major parts of UA. If you see CO starting more fights to FRA (like IAH-FRA) - then start thinking.
With oil at $70 a barrel (and projections to $100 in a few years) - something is going to happen. DL shutdown, UA sold off, etc. Of course if DL shutdown - then who is left for SkyTeam. Remember DL beat CO for the AF alliance a few years back.
As much as we would hope UA and DL are most likely not going anywhere. DL can file Chapter 11 and pull a UA; as for UA it's just a matter of time until the pull out of banrupcy.
Consolidation is inveitable and it has begun - HP/US for example.
If you want to play the "What If" game:
lets pretend UA can't pull out of bankrupcy without selling stuff assests.
Are they going to sell the Pacific Operation?
Prolly Not - they make money there Im sure.
Are they going to sell LHR ?
Prolly Not - if everyone hasn't learned from the PA/TW mistakes in doing so no one will.
Whats left to auction off?
DEN?
CO doesnt want it unless they lower landing fees.
LAX?
CO can build it up on it's own without UA.
Planes?
Doubt it, CO like new stuff.
Lets pretend DL files chapter 11
They'll pull a UA and just operate under it as long as they can or until they can emerge.
If they have to sell stuff off, what would CO want?
ATL? JFK?
Doubtful.
European Routes
Possibly.
In keeping with that thinking.
We will see consolidation, but aong majors I think we will see AA, UA, DL, NW, CO and the new US around for some time to come.
Six majors is reasonable to have with a variety of small carriers still around.
-Vincent