Originally Posted by Froggee
The tier points you lose will either be worth nothing (you would get silver next year anyway) or A LOT (mmmm - lounges) My inclination would be to forget about it and just lose the 40 points.
If you are in a position next year where you need exactly 40 points then you can book a ~£200 fare and get them.
So the choice is spend £138 now - perhaps for nothing (you may get silver through normal flying activity anyway next year) or maybe spend £200 (or perhaps less) next year IF you are unlucky with the number of tier points you get.
Doing a probability distribution of tier points from, e.g. 400 - 800 would say you'd be off your rocker to spend the cash now as the chances are very low that you will need those 40 points.
So hang on, am I mistaken in thinking that those lost 60 points (not 40) would not count towards my second year in Silver? I will make it to silver in one months time, so I will keep that up until Sept 06, but that 60 lost points is 10% of the way to Silver from Sept 06-Sept 07, or not?
The other thing to consider is also that taking this £138 flight means I'll be silver
before i take the longhaul WT+ flights...more change of u/g? maybe, maybe not i guess.....