As of today, I've reached the point that I need to agree with those who argue there is minimal risk as a transit passenger. We're dealing with about a 2 hour window between the time SQ would divert landing (if something was happening right then) and the ensuing takeoff.

Edit: I've clarified the concerns originally voiced in this paragraph below.

I've also run the numbers. Even if I make this turn on schedule, I'm WAY less confident that I'll be doing 3-4 additional turns in CMB by the end of 2006. Of course this is in stark contrast to my confidence that I'll be in Tokyo a minimum of 6 times (and hence turning in BKK or CMB) by the end of 2006.

This lack of confidence necessitates my requalification of NH Diamond before chasing UA 1K. If I follow this logic, strangly enough the difference in redeemable mileage earned if I just stick to BKK in 2005 as opposed to doing 2 turns in CMB is only about 3000 redeemable because it necessitates my crediting NH on UA metal thus foregoing the elite bonus on a number of the UA flights.

What am I left with after NH requalification? Well assuming UA offers it's double EQM promo late this year I'd wind up with 40K EQM which does absolutely nothing for me unless I churned out 30K in pure mileage runs during the promo period. My 1P status on UA is good through Feb 2007.

My non-reimbursable incremental expenses to put this trip play include:
$600 (ex-CMB A fare vs BKK D fare)
$500 (SQ 1 year Open C return BKK-SIN-BKK)
TBD 1 night in HNL hotel

If I cancel, out of pocket I lose:
$150 prepaid SIN Hotel
$100 cancellation of UA award ticket from SIN-CMB
$35 (travel agent fee)

Various perks:
If I go...
1 day on the beach in HNL
1 RT SFO-LAX-SFO in F for college FB game
1 evening on the beach in HNL
Stops permitted in Tokyo both directions
Stops in HKG and SIN anytime
No need to burn NH upgrade coupons on my transpacs
Travel from NRT-SE Asia in UA F as opposed to NH C (is this a perk? )
Dinner with Savage25

So there you go. These are all the factors that I need to parse to ultimately make my decision. I could delay this until December for the low, low price of $135. (IC SIN will allow me to shift the pre-paid reservation to December under the circumstances.)

I suppose that I just really want to do the run, but to me it seems foolhearty not to eat the $135 and start over in December. I've spent a lot of time planning and I don't want to just let it slip away.

Thanks for your opinions and your eyeballs

PS: I'd say that my decision deadline is no more than a week out. For business reasons, I'd need the refund to post tom my credit card in August.