Originally Posted by cctraderx
From your example and 1 Starwood point = 3 MR points, then your 30,000 SW points would have equaled 90,000 MR point. You still saved 10,000 eqivalent MR points but not the 70,000 points.
No, that's not really the right way to think about it. You earn 30,000 *W points on the *W Amex by spending $30,000. Similarly, you earn 100,000 MR points on the Gold card by spending $100,000. Big difference.
Of course, putting the credit card programs aside, the real question is -- how much in travel spending, either hotel or airfare does it take to earn (a) 30,000 *points, or (b) 100,000 airline miles? As a non-elite *W, you earn 2 *points for every eligible dollar spent, so that's $15,000 in hotel charges (plus taxes, so probably $18,000), before any bonuses. For airline miles, let's say you can get a NY-LA ticket for $250 r/t (probably best case scenario), that's 4,800 miles, or about $0.05 per mile. So for 100,000 miles, it'll cost roughly $5200. Obviously mileage/point bonuses (elite or otherwise) would reduce both these costs, but base out-of-pocket would still probably be meaningfully more to get the *points.
That's where the *W Amex comes in handy, it basically gives you a 50% bonus on your hotel spending, plus *points on all other spending. Generally, *points are hard to earn otherwise. No inbound transfers except the crappy MR conversion.
Bottom line, the math is never straightforward and it's always a complicated exercise. But it would seem you're generally better off earnings airline miles through airline programs, and *points through a combo of hotel stays and the *W Amex. But others will probably disagree.