In answer to some of your questions:
1- loads vary greatly, recently a EWR-HGK flight looked very full as per ITN, but in actuallity it was only 1/2 full.
2- no chance of upgrading, unless coach is full and you get a lucky operational upgrade. On international flights you have to use real miles to upgrade (40-50m). Unlike domestic flights where your status alone gets you in the front of the plane.