Look, you always have a chance of it getting busted, but in reality I have travelled with desktops well insulated in my check in bags many times and nothing has happened. The question is whether you can handle the damage if it does occur as no airline will take responsibility (In my case(s) it was always that the computer or components I was bringing back from the US were something like 80% cheaper than where I was going, hence it was worth the risk).