Originally Posted by omahajim
May I ask a very ignorant question? If the US gets their way and China bends to pressure to revalue the Yuan (allow it to float), where do the experts here feel that will take the conversion rate? Right now it's CNY100 to US$12.08. What might it be under a float? (as best as you can guess)
We are planning an event in Beijing in November and are worried that a revaluation by that time may greatly increase the cost of the event for us. I can't imagine a revaluation making it *cheaper* for us to buy Yuan, I think it would be the other way.
Thanks.
Even those who argue for increased valuation of the Yuan aren't suggesting a true float. China's financial system is way too fragile for that. The talk is of a series of small steps. I wouldn't expect anything more than a 10% gain vs. the greenback before November.